The Financial Times reports that it would be misguided to expect US farmers to be able to compensate for wheat shortages likely to be created by the War in Ukraine - the fact is that "most of this year’s American wheat crop is already planted, while soaring costs for fuel and fertilizer are blunting the economic incentives."
FT goes on:
"The US was the world’s second-largest wheat exporter after Russia in 2020, while Ukraine ranked fifth. Russia’s attack on Ukraine has disrupted wheat shipments from both countries, raising fears of food shortages in import-dependent nations.
"The global grain market typically responds to shortages in one part of the world by tapping other regions that have a surplus. When Russia banned wheat exports after a severe drought in 2010, US shipments helped picked up the slack.
"But any response from the US this time round will take time. After a poor harvest last year, domestic wheat stocks are at their lowest level in 14 years, according to the US Department of Agriculture. Farmers have already seeded 34.4 million acres with winter wheat, which accounts for the majority of US production, and there is a worsening drought in important winter wheat states such as Kansas."